How to think more critically
Short answer
Trace claims to their source: ask who measured what and how. Hunt disconfirmation, don’t only gather confirming evidence. Put numbers on beliefs, say a rough probability out loud, and use the outside view first. Update slowly, run beliefs on dials not switches so you keep mistakes cheap. Watch for bias tells in yourself: if evidence only ever strengthens you, or you get irritated by counter-articles, step back. Before negotiations, write your number down to avoid anchoring.
Assembled by AI from the RefineAura lessons below
The lessons behind this answer
1 · Critical thinking
What is Critical Thinking?
Explains tracing claims, hunting disconfirmation, and running beliefs on dials.
- Critical thinking = caring about being right eventually over feeling right now.
- Trace claims to sources; know deduction from induction; price accordingly.
- Hunt disconfirmation; run beliefs on dials, not switches.
2 · Critical thinking
Spotting Cognitive Biases
Shows common biases, their tells, and the anchoring countermove.
- Five earners: confirmation, anchoring, availability, sunk cost, attribution error.
- You'll spot them in others for free; in yourself, only via the tells.
- The attribution countermove (situation before character) is social lubricant disguised as logic.
3 · Critical thinking
Thinking in Probabilities
Recommends putting numbers on beliefs, outside view, and small updates.
- Numbers force honesty that 'probably' launders: own the 70 vs the 95.
- Outside view first: the base rate beats the vivid inside story.
- Update in small steps; dials, not switches, keep wrongness cheap.
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