How to make better decisions
Short answer
Put numbers on your beliefs. Say a percent or a range out loud so you can act differently at 70 versus 95. Start with the outside view, then update in small steps, not flips. Define triggers that summon slow thinking and pause before replying so System 2 can work. Give wider intervals you would actually bet on, and run a premortem before anything big to force doubt and surface failure modes.
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The lessons behind this answer
1 · Critical thinking
Thinking in Probabilities
Gives the habit of putting numbers on beliefs, using outside view, and updating in small steps.
- Numbers force honesty that 'probably' launders: own the 70 vs the 95.
- Outside view first: the base rate beats the vivid inside story.
- Update in small steps; dials, not switches, keep wrongness cheap.
2 · Critical thinking
Two Thinking Systems
Explains System 1 and System 2 and how to summon the slow accountant with pauses.
- Fast pattern-matcher, slow accountant: neither is the good one.
- System 2 is lazy: it must be summoned, so define the triggers.
- The pause before replying is a system switch. Most regretted sentences skipped it.
3 · Critical thinking
Avoid the Overconfidence Trap
Shows widening estimate ranges, betting-calibrated intervals, and running premortems before big actions.
- Felt certainty runs far ahead of earned certainty: measure the gap.
- Ranges you'd bet on, predictions you score: calibration is a practice, not a trait.
- Premortems make doubt the assignment: run one before anything big.
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